One New City a Year for the Next 43 Years

Up to now, this blog has rightfully focused to a large degree on the issue of sustainability. In some respects, sustainability is the only issue of any real consequence. It is about the economic, social, cultural, and environmental health of the region now and in the future.

How we as a region will survive and thrive over the next half century is of paramount importance. Sustainability is sort of the lens through which the other topics of the Fifty Forward program will be viewed. But there are other topics to be considered.

Another topic critical to our future is the size and composition of our population. If current trends persist, and this is a big if, the region’s population could reach almost 9.5 million people by 2050. That’s roughly 4.5 million more people than today for an average annual increase of just over 100,000 people a year. This roughly equates to the addition of two Alpharettas or five Stockbridges to the region every year for the next 43 years.

But there’s more to the story than just the sheer volume of people. The make up of those people will transform the face of Atlanta just as much. Again, if current trends persist, it is reasonable to expect that by 2020, there will be no single racial or ethnic majority in the region. And by 2050, we could see the population breakdown like this: 38% White, 27% Hispanic, 26% Black, and 9% Other, a significant departure from today.

Additionally, by the time we get to 2050, the shifting age profile could result in a relatively equal distribution of ages. And along the way we will see the Baby Boomers, a major portion of our population, age out of the workforce. This means that one-third of the region’s population could end up supporting the other two-thirds.

Obviously, there is a lot of time between now and the middle of the century, but each new year along the way will bring change to the region’s demographic profile and an increase in our diversity. Some like to say that demography is destiny. This may be partially true, but how we handle demographic change is completely up to us. We get to determine the vision for what we will become.

But to do so, we’re going to have to answer questions like:

Where the heck are we going to put all these people?
How can the region absorb this population growth in a sustainable way?
What will be the civic ramifications of the lack of a dominant paradigm provided by a majority racial/ethnic group?
How do we prepare an economy and its workforce to support two-thirds of our population?

Fifty Forward is looking for suggestions. Maybe you have some?